Calgary Real Estate Forecast for 2024

Moving into 2024, we anticipate that potential buyers who were previously on the sidelines due to limited supply choices may reenter the market as lending rates ease and listings improve. At the same time, with more mortgages set to renew, we could see some gains in resale listings as existing homeowners who were previously hesitant to change their housing situation may be motivated to capitalize on rising prices and favourable seller market conditions. The combination of improved listings and heightened activity in the new home sector is anticipated to foster some growth in overall supply. However, given the persistent strong demand driven by recent migration and a healthy job market, it will take time for supply levels to rise sufficiently to restore balance to the market.

Although conditions are not expected to be as tight as in 2023, a seller’s market is projected to persist throughout the spring market, resulting in further price growth. However, the rate of growth for each property type is anticipated to slow compared to 2023 levels. Supply growth is expected to be mostly driven by the upper price ranges for each property type, which will likely decelerate the pace of price growth for higher-priced properties. Meanwhile, conditions are expected to remain tight for lower-priced properties, contributing to continued price gains.

Sales: 2022: 15,786     2023: 12,722 (down 19.41% year over year)
Benchmark price: 2022: $627,792        2023: 675,783 (up 7.64% year over year)

Heading into 2024, an anticipated improvement in supply is expected to contribute to a modest upturn in sales activity. However, due to the low starting point, achieving sufficient supply growth will require time to restore balanced conditions. The majority of the supply gains are forecasted to occur in the upper price ranges, slowing the pace of price growth for higher-priced homes. Meanwhile, persistently tight conditions in the lower price ranges are likely to continue driving further price growth. Overall,  prices are projected to rise by four per cent, pushing above $700,000.

Semi Detached
Sales: 2022: 2,502     2023: 2,250 (down 10.07% year over year)
Benchmark price: 2022: $563,258        2023: 604,933 (up 7.40% year over year)

New home starts have risen for semi-detached homes in 2023, which should help support some supply growth in 2024. However, it will take time for supply levels to return to levels that are more consistent with long-term trends, as demand is expected to remain relatively strong. As sales and new listings are expected to improve, we do not anticipate the market returning to more balanced conditions until later in 2024, driving further price growth.

Sales: 2022: 5,151     2023: 4,560 (down 11.47% year over year)
Benchmark price: 2022: $351,358        2023: 399,008 (up 13.56% year over year)

A surge in new home starts in 2023 should help support supply growth for this property type in 2024. However, the relative affordability will continue to support strong demand, prolonging the time it takes for this market to return to more balanced conditions and supporting further price growth in 2024, albeit at a slower pace.

Sales: 2022: 6,220     2023: 7,884 (up 26.75% year over year)
Benchmark price: 2022: $266,150        2023: 302,042 (up 13.49% year over year)

The market tightened for apartments in 2023 and is expected to continue that trend.

Source: CREB Chief Economist

Post a Comment